“Obviously the million-dollar question is: how long is this going to go on for?” So says Julia Lo Bue-Said, chief executive of the Advantage Travel Partnership – a consortium of more than 700 travel agencies.

She is one of the leading travel industry figures invited by The Independent to assess the impact of the US-Israeli attack on Iran and subsequent reprisals against Gulf states.

Airspace at the global hubs of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha closed on 28 February as Iranian drones and missiles targeted key infrastructure – including airport and hotels. Since then, the airlines based there – Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways respectively – have struggled to restore schedules, with many passengers having their flights cancelled repeatedly.

“Every day that it goes on, our members have more re-bookings for flights to the UAE that aren't operating,” the Advantage CEO says.

“To be honest, it feels like Covid part two. Navigating inconsistent airline policies as to when customers can amend, when they can cancel, has been a minefield. Prices have gone up, so that's causing some distress as well.”

Richard Slater, who has spent 40 years in the travel industry, predicts a relatively short-term spell of uncertainty: “Based on previous conflicts in 1991 and 2003, I’d say perhaps four to six weeks of disruption.”

His company, Henbury Travel of Macclesfield, has rebooked a couple who were due to travel out to Asia on Etihad. They will instead travel to Tenerife.

“We gave up as alternative routes were near enough impossible. Next month we have some going Australia via Dubai.”

Ashley Quint, director of TravelTime World of Hertfordshire, says: “I’ve already had enquiries about moving from Turkey, Cyprus and Oman to potentially the western Mediterranean. I can see that continuing. On the other hand, those who are booked to Jordan are less concerned.”

So much for existing travel plans: has the conflict hit new bookings?

Yes, says Richard Slater: “Initially, it will knock confidence. People are understandably unsure. We’ll probably take a short-term hit in bookings, as we did during the ash cloud and other crises. But it usually slows briefly, then confidence returns.

“The real acid test is whether people are paying their balances. Most of ours are. I did speak to someone at a large chain branch who said they were seeing a slightly different picture because they’d been offering zero deposits. Some customers think they can just walk away if they’ve only paid a small amount.”

No, says Julia Lo Bue-Said: “Feedback so far from members has actually been the new business is pretty steady. People want to book, they're still looking to travel, not seeing any indication at all of any full-scale cancellations and people still want their holidays.”

The crucial question for the travel industry – and for the airlines based in the Gulf – is whether travellers will decide to give the Middle East a wide berth, and indeed, stay clear of the eastern Mediterranean?

“It’s far too early to determine any kind of longer term trends from this, says Ms Lo Bue-Said.

“What I can anticipate is more demand for the western Med.”

Ashley Quint forecasts: “I sense people will be looking for dependable destinations: classics like the Spanish islands, Italy, Croatia and Portugal for short haul.

“Maybe an uptake in Caribbean for the summer, and, for the slightly more adventurous, the likes of Canada and parts of Latin America.

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“I wouldn’t be surprised if a cruise would be on the radar of those who haven’t considered it before, especially if they are used to all-inclusives in Turkey and Greece.”

While the big three Middle East carriers are likely to want to stimulate bookings by cutting fares once they are back to full operation, Mr Quint says: “I’m fully expecting air fares heading east to skyrocket as everyone starts funnelling through the Far East, as well as pressure on places like the Maldives and Mauritius where a lot of traffic came through the Middle East.

“Even if it’s reopened, I think it’s going to be difficult to convince people to connect, and there won’t be enough capacity on the direct services.”

But Richard Slater says: “When this is contained, I think Gulf airlines will recover fairly quickly. They have the resources and marketing power to restore confidence.”

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