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The call I was expecting came in just before 5am on Wednesday. I was in the Indonesian city of Yogyakarta, base camp for the world's largest Buddhist temple at Borobudur. The dialling code indicated the caller was in the United Arab Emirates – the home of Etihad. Seven weeks ago, I booked a trip with the airline departing tomorrow from Jakarta to Abu Dhabi, with a two-night stay in the UAE capital before flying on to London Heathrow. With intense competition from Emirates and Qatar Airways, Etihad even threw in the hotel stay.

Long-haul travellers heading east or south have grown accustomed to an aviation superhighway that funnels passengers from airports across Britain to the Middle East and distributes them across Asia, Africa and Australasia. The airports in Abu Dhabi, Doha and Dubai deliver slick connections and stylish stopovers.

That was before the US and Israeli assault on Iran that began 13 days ago. Tehran promptly retaliated, targeting infrastructure in the Gulf nations, including airports and hotels. With missiles and drones incoming, outgoing flights were temporarily halted. The Foreign Office promptly put all the Gulf states on the no-go list. Unlike the FCDO travel advice for countries such as Mexico and Ecuador, no exception has been made for so-called “airside” transit. The Foreign Office says the risks in the region are too high even to contemplate pausing at an airport for a couple of hours to change planes.

The customer service lady from Etihad said my flight from Jakarta is going ahead. But the stopover is, unsurprisingly, toast: “You cannot stay more than 10 hours in Abu Dhabi.” The airline offered instead an immediate overnight connection to Heathrow. I therefore have a choice of going against Foreign Office advice or spending over £1,800 on the cheapest available alternative, which is on Oman Air via Muscat. That is more than three times the fare I paid for the Etihad journey. Even though my travel insurance will cease to be valid if I go against FCDO advice, I will take my chances in Abu Dhabi duty-free.

At least I get to exercise my free will. In Bali, I met Jeff and Wendy Spencer from Surrey. “Stranded in paradise,” is how they describe their situation. “It feels like the Hotel California: you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.” (For the avoidance of doubt, the property of that name in the Indonesian city of Bandung, below, definitely lets guests out.) The couple have tickets on Emirates from Bali to Heathrow. The airline flies every night from the Indonesian island to Dubai, with onward connections to Heathrow. But their holiday company, Distant Journeys, must adhere to Foreign Office travel advice.

Jeff and Wendy are not allowed to take the one-stop express trip. Instead, they face an absurdly complicated journey: from Bali to Bangkok, where they change for a flight to Colombo. After an unexpected overnight stay in Sri Lanka, they will board a special charter flight that Distant Journeys has laid on for them and hundreds of other passengers in the region. Bringing customers home without touching the Gulf will, I estimate, cost the company around £1 million. No doubt the FCDO, whose advice is forcing such extreme arrangements, has good reason for its hard line on airlines. But I recall this is the government department that, during Covid, assured British travellers that Portugal's Algarve coast was as risky as central Kabul and parts of Somalia.

How will travel change after the 2026 reset?

The appalling human tragedy unfolding in the Middle East will affect the decisions of those of us lucky enough to be able to choose where to travel. The region has experienced shutdowns before, as I explored in a recent podcast here. As I heard this week from Tony Wheeler, co-founder of Lonely Planet, the hippie trail that traced a route Across Asia on the Cheap (the title of the first guidebook) hit a geopolitical roadblock when the Iranian revolution happened in 1979. Backpackers in search of enlightenment, beauty and possibly soft drugs switched to Africa and Latin America. Expect a similar swerve in the months ahead.

For travellers who are still enticed by the east: the airlines of China will enjoy an increased competitive advantage over their Western rivals. They fly across Russia, saving time and fuel and staying thousands of miles away from the conflict. Istanbul airport will pick up plenty of business from Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi: it already serves more destinations than any of those Gulf hubs. But Turkey as a whole will be a net loser. Spain and Portugal are already seeing bookings rise as some prospective holidaymakers seek alternatives to Turkey – which will also spell bargains in the latter for those of us happy about escaping to the eastern Mediterranean.

The winter sun market is going to be interesting, now that everyone has a mental map revealing just how close Dubai is to Iran. Egypt, the Caribbean and South Africa are likely to be the beneficiaries. The consensus view is that Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways will be able to entice passengers back simply by cutting fares. But more of us will continue beyond those hubs to new horizons. Fresh discoveries could just make travel even more rewarding.

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