As a result, some steelworkers are concerned that rushing into an agreement with Europe could come at the expense of domestic steel producers and their union workers, whose support for Biden in key swing states helped propel him to the White House.

“The Biden administration understands that simply lifting steel tariffs without any solution in place, particularly beyond the dialogue, could well mean layoffs and plant closures in Pennsylvania and in Ohio and other states where obviously the impact would be felt not only economically but politically,” said Scott Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing.

The political calculus for Biden

From his first days in office, Biden has sought to dismantle many of his predecessor's policies toward the world beyond U.S. borders. He’s put particular emphasis on reasserting the U.S. as a global force keen to collaborate with — not chastise — like-minded nations on policies ranging from climate change to global health.

But he hasn’t touched Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and members of his Cabinet have gone so far as to praise them. Pressure from unions is a key reason why.

Ultimately, Biden must decide whether the good of the few — the 137,200 or so steel and ironworkers in the country last year — outweighs the good of the many — 6.5 million workers, by one estimate, who need steel or aluminum for the goods they make. A number of economists warn that steel tariffs could imperil more jobs than they preserve.

“On one level, the steelworkers don't represent a huge number of voters because there's just not that many of them, but they are important voters in important states,” said Todd Tucker, director of governance studies at the Roosevelt Institute, a progressive-leaning think tank.

“If you look at the geography of where steel production is most prevalent, it's in a few congressional districts in Ohio, Pennsylvania and a few other places that are going to be important, certainly in presidential years, but some Senate races in 2022,” Tucker added.

Biden’s blue-collar roots have long been central to his political identity. He leaned on them during the 2020 campaign in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as he made promises to bolster U.S. manufacturing and rebuild an economy blighted by the coronavirus pandemic.

Biden told the United Steelworkers in a campaign questionnaire that he would support steel and aluminum tariffs until global excess capacity is addressed, but he also pledged to review Trump’s “short-sighted and destructive” approach to tariffs. He slammed his then-opponent for failing to address China’s trade practices and alienating foreign allies.

“I will use tariffs when they are needed, but the difference between me and Trump is that I will have a strategy — a plan — to use those tariffs to win, not just to fake toughness,” Biden told the union.

His administration is now eager to show it’s delivering. Biden earned praise from labor groups for signing an executive order just days after taking office that prompts federal agencies to buy more U.S. products. He touted those tighter rules in a speech in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley this summer, with American-made Mack Trucks parked behind him.

“I'm here to talk about a commitment that's sacred to me and central to our efforts to keep things moving,” Biden said. “It’s a straightforward solution: Support and grow more American-based companies, put more Americans to work in union jobs, strengthen American manufacturing, and secure critical supply chains.”

The bipartisan infrastructure bill that has cleared the Senate would be another win for Biden with labor unions that were disappointed Trump did not fulfill his infrastructure promises. The $550 billion package would unleash billions of dollars for construction-heavy projects like roads, bridges and rail, with U.S. manufacturers and steel producers poised to benefit.

And the infrastructure package, if it passes, could provide some political cover for Biden if his decision on tariffs ultimately disappoints steelworkers.

Thompson said Biden’s campaign-trail promise to invest heavily in infrastructure and promote the U.S. manufacturing sector resonated with his members. But those same members are sensitive to unfair trade practices from foreign steel producers in China and Europe, where industry groups and labor unions argue overcapacity is also a problem.

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