FiveThirtyEight average as of Monday evening: Biden +2.6
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +2.4
2016 result: Trump +3.5

Befitting its toss-up status, the final live-interview poll in Arizona, an NBC News/Marist poll released Monday, showed a tied race in Arizona, 48 percent to 48 percent.

Biden does lead in the polling average, however, as other late surveys have given him the edge, including a 6-point lead in a New York Times/Siena College poll out on Sunday.

Florida (29 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +2.5
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +0.6
2016 result: Trump +1.2

Biden enters the election about 2 points stronger than Clinton was in 2016, when Trump emerged with a 1-point victory.

The final live-caller poll, from Quinnipiac University, showed Biden ahead by 5 points — though Quinnipiac overestimated Democrats in the state in the 2018 midterms.

Georgia (16 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +4
2016 result: Trump +5.1

Georgia has raced away from Trump in the polls: He led by 4 points on the eve of the 2016 election and won by 5 — the rare state where Trump didn’t overperform significantly on Election Day.

He and Biden are neck-and-neck now, with the Democrat a point ahead in the FiveThirtyEight average.

Iowa (6 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.4
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +2.9
2016 result: Trump +9.4

The most promising news for Trump in the polls in the 72 hours before the election came from Iowa, where a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showed the president ahead by 7 points.

That’s out of line with the average, which showed a closer race. But the Register’s final poll was also better for Trump than the average in 2016 — and it was right.

Michigan (16 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +4.2
2016 result: Trump +0.2

Biden’s 8-point advantage in Michigan — the state Trump won by the narrowest margin in 2016 — is nearly twice Hillary Clinton’s pre-2016 lead.

The live-interview polls in the final two weeks of the race gave Biden a lead between 7 and 12 points. They’d have to be way off for Trump to win there again.

Minnesota (10 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +9.4
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +5.8
2016 result: Clinton +1.5

Trump’s narrow loss in Minnesota was an underrated surprise from 2016. But in order to make a real challenge there this year, he’d have to overcome a bigger Biden advantage of nearly 10 points.

Nevada (6 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +1.8
2016 result: Clinton +2.4

Nevada was another state where Trump didn’t overperform his polls in 2016. That makes his current 5-point deficit appear more daunting.

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +11.1
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +3.6
2016 result: Clinton +0.4

Trump’s narrow 2016 loss in New Hampshire came after entering Election Day within 4 points in the polls. He’s down by at least twice that now: Two in-state academic pollsters showed Biden ahead by 8 points last week.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1.9
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +0.7
2016 result: Trump +3.6

As in 2016, the polls are tight in North Carolina. There’s a slight gap between the live-interview polls — the final two, from CNN/SSRS and NBC News/Marist, showed Biden ahead by 6 points — and web surveys showing essentially a tied race.

Trump out-ran his polls there in 2016, winning the state by almost 4 points. It was an early sign the night was breaking his way in a state where the polls close early (7:30 p.m. Eastern).

Ohio (18 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.7
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +1.9
2016 result: Trump +8.1

This is the only one of the 13 states in this analysis where Trump currently leads in the polling average — even after a Quinnipiac poll out on Monday gave Biden a 4-point advantage.

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +3.7
2016 result: Trump +0.7

Biden is in better shape than Clinton in the most-likely tipping-point state — but not by much. He’s ahead by around 5 points, just a little above Clinton’s nearly 4-point lead four years ago.

Trump’s only leads are in surveys by two Republican pollsters, while the other surveys show Biden ahead — and, in a key difference from 2016, at or above 50 percent. That includes two surveys on Monday: an NBC News/Marist poll showing Biden ahead, 51 percent to 46 percent, and a Monmouth University poll showing similar numbers among its various turnout models.

Texas (38 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +8.5
2016 result: Trump +9

Unlike some of the core battlegrounds, polling in Texas has slowed down at the end of the election. But Trump is entering with only a 1-point lead — a troubling sign after he essentially matched his polls when he won the state by 9 points in 2016.

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes):

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8.2
FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +5.3
2016 result: Trump +0.8

Of the Great Lakes battleground states Trump flipped in 2016, coronavirus-ravaged Wisconsin has been his weakest in public polling. The final New York Times/Siena College poll showed Biden ahead by 11 points — though Trump is a little closer in other surveys.

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