The first casualty of war is truth, but travel is never far behind. And this week, European officials have been talking about travel in soundbites of questionable veracity. Both the boss of the International Energy Agency and the EU energy commissioner have made pronouncements of imminent aviation fuel shortages that are not borne out by my study of the available data.

Careless talk costs holidays. “Every other question is about fuel,” one leading independent travel agent tells me. I can be quite certain that, two months ago, the number of customers wondering about whether their holiday flight would take off due to a lack of fuel was zero.

It is eight weeks since we woke up to the news that Iran had retaliated against attacks by the US and Israel, and that a large swathe of the Middle East was off-limits to civil aviation. The big airports of the Gulf are still on the Foreign Office no-go list, with Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways still struggling to repair their schedules.

As I have written, though, bargains abound: this is a real buyers’ summer. Buy now, and you are covered by strong consumer protection. If, for any reason, the flight fails to go ahead, the airline must find you an acceptable alternative.

But some travellers, looking at the soaring price of aviation fuel, are still concerned: “Won’t they ask for more money?”

No. Plenty of airlines have introduced surcharges for new bookings, from £2 (Aurigny) to £260 (Japan Airlines). But they do not apply to people holding tickets.

Most airlines and holiday companies “hedge” the majority of their forecast energy requirements: they enter into financial deals to lock into a fixed price for a certain quantity of fuel. So holidaymakers this summer will be flying on planes powered at pre-crisis prices.

One caveat is that, under the Package Travel Regulations, the tour operator (the company that organises the holiday) is allowed to ask for more money if “the price of the carriage of passengers resulting from the cost of fuel” has risen. But this can only happen if the firm shows its working. And if the proposed surcharge is above 8 per cent, then you have the right to cancel for a full refund. Unsurprisingly, surcharges often turn out to be exactly 8 per cent, representing an extra £80 on a £1,000 holiday.

If you have (wisely) booked a package holiday, you may be concerned. Happily, two out of three of the UK’s biggest tour operators have vowed not to surcharge summer holidaymakers. First was Jet2, Britain's biggest holiday company.

Speaking on Friday, chief executive Steve Heapy said: “Holidaymakers should have every right to book their hard-earned break in the sun, without worrying about being hit with additional costs, and they can have that complete assurance when they book a flight or holiday with Jet2. Customers booking with Jet2 know that they are locking in their price without additional cost surprises later.”

Across at easyJet Holidays, CEO Garry Wilson said on Saturday: “We know that holidaymakers may have questions about what recent global events might mean for their travel plans this summer, so we are giving our customers absolute peace of mind that no surcharges will be added to their flights or package holidays.” He added that customers can be confident their holidays will “go ahead as planned”.

I predict Tui, the third giant company, will follow suit.

But IAG – which owns British Airways, Aer Lingus and Iberia of Spain – is talking of “pricing adjustments to reflect these higher fuel costs”. A spokesperson said: “We are not seeing jet fuel supply interruptions, but fuel prices have risen sharply and, despite our hedging strategy, which gives some shorter-term mitigation, we are not immune to the impact.”

Don’t fret about this: BA will not come after you for more cash, and the airlines can charge only what the market will bear. And judging from some of the prices on offer, that isn’t a lot.

Simon Calder, also known as The Man Who Pays His Way, has been writing about travel for The Independent since 1994. In his weekly opinion column, he explores a key travel issue – and what it means for you.

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